Page History

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Technical issues related to the ERICA Tool (on Facilia website)
Posted: 12/10/2010

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Predicting future biota and media concentrations

From:
Chutarat Saengkulž
Burapha University
THAILAND

Question:
I would like to predict of radiocesium activity in fish and water in the future using the ERICA Tool. How can I do this?

Answer:

Currently, you cannot input time series data, or data for more than one location, into _You cannot use the ERICA Tool to model in a single run. This functionality is something which has been requested previously by users and it MAY be provided in future Tool versions.

How you can best proceed depends upon what you want to do to some extent. Here are two suggestions:

1. As you are only considering Cs-137 you could extract the DCC values and if required Kd and CR values from the Tool and use them in an Excel spreadsheet. If you do this then make sure you check calculations by running one or two through the Tool as well as your spreadsheet

2. If you have multiple entries for a single year you could use Tier 3 to input mean values with an associated pdf.

(or other packages such as RESRAD BIOTA) to make future predictions of water and fish activity concentrations.

How you can address this depends upon the nature of your assessment and available information:

1) If you have discharge data you could use the dis[ersion model available within the ERICA Tool to predict water concentrations (although I suspect from your previous question that this will not be the case.
2) You have data over the period 1962-2006 - consider analysing these data for time trends and making predictions for water and fish in the future outside of the ERICA Tool. Then input your results into the ERICA Tool to obtain dose rate estimates.
3) I am unsure if you are considering a freshwater or marine ecosystem?On a different note, it looks like you have access to a large and potentially useful dataset, please consider making this available to the IAEA working group who are collating transfer parameter values for wildlife.

Answered by Nick Beresford 26/10/2010

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Posted: 30/09/2010

Time series data

From:
Chutarat Saengkulž
Burapha University
THAILAND

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