Modelling economic impact and strategies to increase resilience against tree disease outbreaks

Led by Dr Adam Kleczkowski, University of Stirling

Forests in the UK are facing increasing pressures from pests and pathogens. An increase in the volume and global scale of trade, coupled with the evolution and adaptation of pests has led to new diseases and pests appearing in the UK at an increasing rate. The issue is not so much whether a new epidemic will emerge in the next years, but when and how it will happen.

In this project, an interdisciplinary team of mathematicians, forest ecologists and economists will work together to build a series of models to study the ways in which different management options can reduce risks and expected damages from a range of forest diseases. The models will generate information on the effects of these options on the supply of ecosystem services provided by forests such as carbon sequestration and storage, biodiversity, and recreation opportunities. Models will be combined with a "choice experiment" to measure the cost and benefit of management options. This experiment will be implemented with stakeholders, including members of the general public. The models will allow the researchers to assess which policy options offer best value for public money while reducing the risk of disease spread. In addition, the researchers will study the implications of uncertainty on the part of forest managers over the effects of their actions using a real options approach. The findings will be of use to forest managers, as well as government agencies and departments which are concerned with tree and plant diseases and forest management.

This project is in partnership with University of Cambridge, University of St Andrews, Bangor University and Forest Research